It should come as no surprise that the third decade of the 21st century has brought a string of unpredictable and, at times, chaotic years. True to form, 2024 was no exception. The war in Ukraine seems to be at a standstill, the Israel-Palestinian conflict has spread to Lebanon, and the US presidential election was one of the most extraordinary political comebacks in modern-day history.
The global economy appears to be regaining its footing, with stabilised growth at around 3.2% and inflation easing to 4.4%, down from 5.8% in 2024, according to the IMF. In this ever-fluctuating context, luxury real estate endures as the ultimate safe-haven asset, alongside gold. This resilient and circular model may even gain extra points in 2025.
2025: a multi-speed year separating continents
United States: the US economy has exceeded all expectations over the past two years, escaping the sharp slowdown feared due to rising interest rates. US economic growth is projected to slow slightly in 2025 but is expected to remain around the 2% mark, according to UBS. The low-tax environment and deregulation anticipated under the Trump presidency could further support the US economy.
Europe: an international trade conflict would penalise Europe, and the region's exporting economies in particular. Germany, France and Italy are expected to post moderate growth of around 1% according to UBS. Spain, the UK and Switzerland are forecast to perform better, with expected growth rates of 2.3%, 1.5% and 1.3% respectively.
"The unpredictability of this decade so far reminds us of the importance of diversification. But also of the adaptability of the economy and the potential for market growth, and the power of innovation." — Mark Haefele, CIO Global Wealth Management, UBS
American investors enamoured with Europe
CNN noted an increase in internet searches for top expatriation destinations from the United States in December 2024. Six European countries appeared in the top 10 recommendations for US citizens: Mexico, Spain, Netherlands, Germany, Costa Rica, France, Panama, Italy, Singapore, Portugal.